politics

If Adeleke were to defect to the APC now, he would be risking his advantage. The trade-off of party seats for 2027 might disfavour him or weaken his bargaining power. Carrying the momentum into next year, however, would likely strengthen his hold of National Assembly seats from the current seven to perhaps nine or more, and also secure a comfortable majority in the state assembly. If, on the contrary, he begins now to antagonise Tinubu, and the President wins reelection in January, Adeleke risks a resurgence of brutal federal might that could not only weaken his control over federal legislators but also install a hostile state assembly that could impeach him

The state of the living spring now looks like the Strait of Hormuz. And it’s not just the arrival of generals, henchmen and supporters of the major parties that put Osun on a war footing. On Wednesday, a bank source told me that none of the branches in Lagos could pay out up to N5 million in cash. Politicians are raiding the banks, and Osun is floating on a dead sea of money, spooking fears that those who survive the bullets may also have to resist being buried in slush funds